Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹2,580.9(▲0.15%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

TCPLPACKTCPLPACK Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: TCPLPACK Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Packaging

Risk ClassWatch

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverCompetitive Position

Flagium AI Risk Score

20 / 100

0 QoQ

Stable

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure has stabilized in competitive position. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. No major change in risk trend.

59.1th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹2,580.9▲0.15%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position

+14.4 pts

Earnings Quality

+6.0 pts

Final Composite Risk20 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 20 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Relative Growth Weakness
Industrial Margin Stress
Operating Leverage Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Operating cash flow
Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (13.1%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2025

TCPLPACK: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

TCPLPACK: Raw material costs consumed an additional 4.2% of revenue YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ1 FY2026

TCPLPACK: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.09x in FY2026 Q1 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 26.3%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	1.82	6.71	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+46.0	+51.0	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Packaging (n=23 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹2,580.9(+0.15%)

1M Divergence-5.09%

1 Week-1.08%

1 Month-2.82%

6 Months-16.14%

1 Year-32.9%

2 Year+22%

3 Year+80.39%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently consolidating. Recent structural triggers in competitive position suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Continued monitoring is necessary as risk levels remain above institutional safety parameters.

TCPLPACK • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score0%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.4405σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1958 of 2716

Top 72.09% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-1.1%

1M-2.8%

6M-16.1%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹2,816.65

200 DMA₹2,964.03

150 DMA Slope-3.4593%Declining

Relative Strength-12.06%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.4596

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (15).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AERONEUAeroflex Neu Limited	15	36th	+5	19	+1	Competitive PositionStable
TCPLPACKTCPLPACK	20	59th	0	6	+0	Competitive PositionWatch
ESTERESTER	33	82th	-2	26	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
ARROWGREENArrow Greentech Limited	47	100th	+27	11	+1	Competitive PositionModerate Deterioration