TEGATega Industries Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Industrial Products
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹13,252 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
35 / 100
+20 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

77.3th %ile (Sector)Accel: +2 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹1,827.1▲0.87%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+15.0 pts
Stability Adjustment
+20.0 pts
Final Composite Risk35 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 35 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Governance Integrity Shock
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth
  • Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh
Governance Integrity Shock
⚖️ Governance SignalsQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ1 FY2027
TEGA: High leadership churn detected (2 key resignations).

"Governance concerns are receding. Promoter alignment and board stability are improving."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 10.9 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
TEGA: EBITDA margin compressed by 11.3 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 7.7% of revenue YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
TEGA: Net Profit collapsed by 58.1% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Inventory growth (14.5%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-3.7%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2025
TEGA: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Aggressive Capex (21.2%) amidst slow revenue growth (-3.7%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)4.178.74✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+31.0+45.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Industrial Products (n=45 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹1,827.1(+0.87%)
1M Divergence+7.57%
1 Week+15.01%
1 Month+9.84%
6 Months-3.79%
1 Year+14.58%
2 Year+23.04%
3 Year+110.4%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

TEGA • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.2%
Trend QualityEarly Base
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score25%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing2%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.0504σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#900 of 2716
Top 33.14% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+15.0%
1M+9.8%
6M-3.8%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹1,788.94
200 DMA₹1,824.88
150 DMA Slope-2.1627%Declining
Relative Strength-0.09%Neutral
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.7226
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (21).
AARONAaron Industries Limited
7 Risk
Sector %ile11th
Delta0
Active Flags7
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

TEGATega Industries Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile77th
Delta+20
Active Flags8
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Watch

ANUPThe Anup Engineering Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile77th
Delta+20
Active Flags14
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Capex Efficiency Stress

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261,774143350318
FY20251,682200195262
FY20241,515194252243
FY20231,235184179309