Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹592.5(▼1.02%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

TEMBOTEMBO Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: TEMBO Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Iron & Steel Products

Risk ClassWatch

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress

Flagium AI Risk Score

24 / 100

+13 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

72.5th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹592.5▼1.02%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress

+13.5 pts

Growth Sustainability

+10.0 pts

Final Composite Risk24 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 13 → 24 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🚨 Escalate

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Industrial Margin Stress
Working Capital Expansion

What to Watch Next Quarter

Working capital efficiency
Inventory turnover
Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 51.2%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Inventory growth (64.6%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (28.9%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

TEMBO: Raw material costs consumed an additional 16.1% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

TEMBO: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Negative FCF Streak

⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

TEMBO: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	4.42	7.53	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+42.0	+51.0	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Iron & Steel Products (n=41 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹592.5(-1.02%)

1M Divergence-4.33%

1 Week-3.18%

1 Month-2.06%

6 Months-18.26%

1 Year+26.34%

2 Year+160.83%

3 Year+163.27%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

TEMBO • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.16%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score27.5%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing16%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.1578σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1322 of 2716

Top 48.67% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-3.2%

1M-2.1%

6M-18.3%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹610.17

200 DMA₹603.88

150 DMA Slope+0.4636%Rising

Relative Strength-13.01%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.1317

ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (15).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
TEMBOTEMBO	24	73th	+13	5	+1	Balance Sheet StressWatch
BEDMUTHABedmutha Industries Limited	30	85th	-5	28	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
ELECTHERMELECTHERM	35	90th	-5	24	+0	Earnings QualityWatch
ELECTCASTElectrosteel Castings Limited	36	95th	-4	30	+0	Earnings QualityWatch