Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹104.19(▲0.59%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

TEXRAILTexmaco Rail & Engineering Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Texmaco Rail & Engineering Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Industrial Products

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹4,058 Cr

Primary DriverCompetitive Position

Flagium AI Risk Score

16 / 100

+5 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in competitive position. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

34.1th %ile (Sector)Accel: +2 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹104.19▲0.59%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position

+15.0 pts

Balance Sheet Stress

+8.0 pts

Stability Adjustment

-7.0 pts

Final Composite Risk16 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 16 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Relative Growth Weakness
Working Capital Expansion
Operating Leverage Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Operating cash flow
Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

TEXRAIL: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

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Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 5.9%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ1 FY2026

TEXRAIL: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.22x in FY2026 Q1 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	3.42	8.74	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+50.0	+45.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Industrial Products (n=45 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹104.19(+0.59%)

1M Divergence-3.48%

1 Week-4.34%

1 Month-1.21%

6 Months-16.23%

1 Year-35.13%

2 Year-47.17%

3 Year+78.56%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in competitive position remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

TEXRAIL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score0%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.3456σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1760 of 2716

Top 64.80% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-4.3%

1M-1.2%

6M-16.2%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹116.3

200 DMA₹122.21

150 DMA Slope-3.0447%Declining

Relative Strength-10.74%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)2.9161

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (21).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AARONAaron Industries Limited	7	11th	0	7	+0	Earnings QualityStable
TEXRAILTexmaco Rail & Engineering Limited	16	34th	+5	5	+2	Competitive PositionStable
ANUPThe Anup Engineering Limited	35	77th	+20	14	+2	Earnings QualityWatch
ATAMAtam Valves Limited	35	77th	0	11	+0	Earnings QualityWatch