Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹75.5(▲2.65%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

TFCILTDTFCILTD Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: TFCILTD Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Financial Institution

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹3,000 Cr

Primary DriverGovernance

Flagium AI Risk Score

1 / 100

-5 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in governance. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

33.3th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹75.5▲2.65%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment

+1.0 pts

Final Composite Risk1 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 26 → 1 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

NIM Compression

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (1)

CriticalHigh

NIM Compression

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

TFCILTD: NIM decline is accelerating (64 bps drop vs prev -45 bps). [Growth Adjusted: 20%]

"Pressure on core margins is stabilizing. Monitor for sustained interest income recovery."

Risk Trajectory

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Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	5.42	3.81	⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+65.0	+55.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Financial Institution (n=7 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

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Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹75.5(+2.65%)

1M Divergence+5.44%

1 Week+4.07%

1 Month+4.72%

6 Months+17.69%

1 Year+68.15%

2 Year+141.52%

3 Year+441.61%

Sector Average (1M)-0.73%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in governance remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of structural transparency and audit trails confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

TFCILTD • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.93%

Trend QualityStrong

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score75%

Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)

Probability of Advancing93%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.1955σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#700 of 2716

Top 25.77% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W+4.1%

1M+4.7%

6M+17.7%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹68.9

200 DMA₹68.89

150 DMA Slope+0.4217%Rising

Relative Strength+23.18%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.7162

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (11).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
IREDAIndian Renewable Energy Development Agency Limited	0	0th	0	1	+0	GovernanceStable
TFCILTDTFCILTD	1	33th	-5	1	+0	GovernanceStable
IFCIIFCI Limited	13	67th	-5	8	+0	Earnings QualityStable
HUDCOHousing & Urban Development Corporation Limited	18	83th	-5	11	+0	GovernanceStable