Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹4,969.7(▼0.46%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

THERMAXThermax Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Thermax Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Heavy Electrical Equipment

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹36,962 Cr

Primary DriverCompetitive Position

Flagium AI Risk Score

11 / 100

-4 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in competitive position. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

43.3th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹4,969.7▼0.46%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position

+10.6 pts

Final Composite Risk11 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 11 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Relative Growth Weakness
Operating Leverage Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Inventory turnover
Operating cash flow
Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Inventory growth (12.2%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-4.2%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

THERMAX: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ3 FY2025

THERMAX: Net Profit collapsed by 52.0% from FY2024 Q3 to FY2025 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Capex Efficiency Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Aggressive Capex (15.5%) amidst slow revenue growth (-4.2%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	1.73	6.30	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+55.0	+55.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Heavy Electrical Equipment (n=31 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹4,969.7(-0.46%)

1M Divergence+19.61%

1 Week+12.04%

1 Month+21.88%

6 Months+73.21%

1 Year+44.69%

2 Year-7.47%

3 Year+111.22%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in competitive position remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

THERMAX • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.99%

Trend QualityStrong

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score100%

Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)

Probability of Advancing99%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+2.0056σ

Strong positive momentum leadership

Universe Rank#94 of 2716

Top 3.46% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W+12.0%

1M+21.9%

6M+73.2%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹3,347.86

200 DMA₹3,323.26

150 DMA Slope+5.5753%Rising

Relative Strength+77.38%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)2.5517

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (11).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AARTECHAartech Solonics Limited	4	17th	-5	4	+0	GovernanceStable
THERMAXThermax Limited	11	43th	-4	6	+0	Competitive PositionStable
BAJELBajel Projects Limited	25	77th	-5	22	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
ELECONElecon Engineering Company Limited	35	90th	+30	6	+2	Earnings QualityWatch