THOMASCOOKThomas Cook (India) Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Tour Travel Related Services
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹4,715 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
14 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

50.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹91.97▼2.09%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+14.2 pts
Competitive Position
+11.5 pts
Stability Adjustment
-12.0 pts
Final Composite Risk14 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 14 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Operating Leverage Stress
  • Profit Collapse
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (3)

CriticalHigh
Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
THOMASCOOK: Net Profit collapsed by 53.5% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (11.0%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Operating Leverage Stress
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)1.273.58✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+52.0+52.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Tour Travel Related Services (n=7 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹91.97(-2.09%)
1M Divergence-2.07%
1 Week-0.87%
1 Month-1.69%
6 Months-34.64%
1 Year-47.25%
2 Year-55.52%
3 Year+37.58%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

THOMASCOOK • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score7.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.7706σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2393 of 2716
Top 88.11% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-0.9%
1M-1.7%
6M-34.6%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹121.04
200 DMA₹132.51
150 DMA Slope-6.9063%Declining
Relative Strength-29.15%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.0914
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (14).
IRCTCIndian Railway Catering And Tourism Corporation Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile17th
Delta+5
Active Flags5
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Stable

THOMASCOOKThomas Cook (India) Limited
14 Risk
Sector %ile50th
Delta+5
Active Flags3
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Stable

IXIGOLe Travenues Technology Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile83th
Delta-5
Active Flags3
Accel+0
Governance

Watch

EASEMYTRIPEasy Trip Planners Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta0
Active Flags22
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
2.929.1th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
2.323.2th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20268,558220643277
FY20258,285258717241
FY20247,436271829220
FY20235,11110597391