Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹2,461.1(▲2.33%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

TIILTIIL Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: TIIL Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Iron & Steel Products

Risk ClassStable

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverGrowth Sustainability

Flagium AI Risk Score

12 / 100

+5 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in growth sustainability. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

35.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹2,461.1▲2.33%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Growth Sustainability

+10.0 pts

Balance Sheet Stress

+8.0 pts

Stability Adjustment

-6.0 pts

Final Composite Risk12 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 4 → 12 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Margin Compression
Industrial Margin Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Inventory turnover
Operating profit margins
Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Inventory growth (6.0%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-0.8%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ3 FY2025

Operating margin declined by 6.2 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Capex Efficiency Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2024

Aggressive Capex (32.0%) amidst slow revenue growth (9.9%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2024

TIIL: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 24.9%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

TIIL: Raw material costs consumed an additional 3.4% of revenue YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Operating Leverage Stress

📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	3.5	7.53	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+54.0	+51.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Iron & Steel Products (n=41 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹2,461.1(+2.33%)

1M Divergence-3.24%

1 Week-6.35%

1 Month-0.97%

6 Months+7.59%

1 Year-18.41%

2 Year+0.33%

3 Year+59.88%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in growth sustainability remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

TIIL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.66%

Trend QualityStabilizing

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score57.5%

Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)

Probability of Advancing66%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.0896σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1173 of 2716

Top 43.19% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-6.3%

1M-1.0%

6M+7.6%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹2,320.77

200 DMA₹2,366.19

150 DMA Slope+1.2136%Rising

Relative Strength+12.02%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.0288

ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (15).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AEROENTERAeroflex Enterprises Limited	5	15th	-5	14	+0	GovernanceStable
TIILTIIL	12	35th	+5	7	+1	Growth SustainabilityStable
BEDMUTHABedmutha Industries Limited	30	85th	-5	28	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
ELECTCASTElectrosteel Castings Limited	36	95th	-4	30	+0	Earnings QualityWatch