Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹3,529.2(▼0.56%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

TIMKENTimken India Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Timken India Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Abrasives & Bearings

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹25,401 Cr

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

10 / 100

-5 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in profitability and earnings quality. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

25.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹3,529.2▼0.56%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+9.0 pts

Stability Adjustment

+1.0 pts

Final Composite Risk10 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 10 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Industrial Margin Stress
Relative Growth Weakness

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Debt growth
Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

TIMKEN: EBITDA margin compressed by 9.7 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 8.1% of revenue YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Inventory growth (7.6%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (2.3%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

TIMKEN: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Capex Efficiency Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Aggressive Capex (18.0%) amidst slow revenue growth (2.3%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	5.75	8.81	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+56.0	+55.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Abrasives & Bearings (n=5 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹3,529.2(-0.56%)

1M Divergence+0.66%

1 Week-2.1%

1 Month+2.93%

6 Months+12.61%

1 Year+12.34%

2 Year-9.75%

3 Year+6.51%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

TIMKEN • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.96%

Trend QualityStrong

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score75%

Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)

Probability of Advancing96%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.0231σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#951 of 2716

Top 35.01% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-2.1%

1M+2.9%

6M+12.6%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹3,233.93

200 DMA₹3,166.74

150 DMA Slope+2.4382%Rising

Relative Strength+20.13%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.4703

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (11).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
GRINDWELLGRINDWELL	5	0th	+5	7	+1	Balance Sheet StressStable
TIMKENTimken India Limited	10	25th	-5	6	+0	Earnings QualityStable
CARBORUNIVCarborundum Universal Limited	25	75th	-5	19	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
WENDTWENDT	35	100th	0	22	+0	Earnings QualityWatch