Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹739.75(▲1.58%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

TMBTMB Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: TMB Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Private Sector Bank

Risk ClassWatch

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverSolvency

Flagium AI Risk Score

28 / 100

0 QoQ

Stable

Sentinel Insight

Early signs of pressure are emerging in asset quality. Pressure has stabilized in solvency. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. No major change in risk trend.

68.4th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹739.75▲1.58%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Solvency

+28.4 pts

Final Composite Risk28 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 28 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

GNPA Spike
NIM Compression

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (2)

CriticalHigh

GNPA Spike

🔭 Relative Sector RiskQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

TMB: GNPA spiked by 7175 bps YoY to 73.00%.

"Early signs of loan book stress. Some underlying accounts are showing signs of weakness."

NIM Compression

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ1 FY2026

TMB: NIM declining for 3 consecutive quarters.

"Pressure on core margins is stabilizing. Monitor for sustained interest income recovery."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	3.45	11.47	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+38.0	+42.5	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Private Sector Bank (n=20 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹739.75(+1.58%)

1M Divergence+0.67%

1 Week+8.3%

1 Month+0.01%

6 Months+38.47%

1 Year+66.88%

2 Year+69.73%

3 Year+88.67%

Sector Average (1M)-0.66%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently consolidating. Recent structural triggers in solvency suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in solvency ratios and structural leverage, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Continued monitoring is necessary as risk levels remain above institutional safety parameters.

TMB • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.98%

Trend QualityStrong

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score90%

Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)

Probability of Advancing98%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.5313σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#434 of 2716

Top 15.98% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W+8.3%

1M+0.0%

6M+38.5%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹597.02

200 DMA₹554.95

150 DMA Slope+6.3727%Rising

Relative Strength+43.45%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)2.7641

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (23.5).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
CUBCity Union Bank Limited	0	0th	-1	5	+0	GovernanceStable
AXISBANKAxis Bank Limited	22	37th	-5	15	+0	Earnings QualityWatch
TMBTMB	28	68th	0	2	+0	SolvencyWatch
RBLBANKRBL Bank Limited	39	100th	+8	15	+1	SolvencyWatch