TMPVTata Motors Passenger Vehicles Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Passenger Cars & Utility Vehicles
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹1,36,736 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
30 / 100
-10 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

100.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹390.2▲1.38%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+15.0 pts
Competitive Position
+15.0 pts
Final Composite Risk30 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 30 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh
Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 3.3 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
TMPV: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -6.19x in FY2026 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
TMPV: Net Profit collapsed by 162.4% from FY2025 Q3 to FY2026 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Inventory growth (18.9%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-3.5%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
TMPV: Revenue fell 23.4% while Debt rose 11.9% in 2026 vs 2025.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)5.455.61✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+36.0+56.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Passenger Cars & Utility Vehicles (n=6 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹390.2(+1.38%)
1M Divergence+11.98%
1 Week+1.19%
1 Month+14.24%
6 Months+9.47%
1 Year-44.69%
2 Year-57.1%
3 Year-25.88%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

TMPV • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.9%
Trend QualityEarly Base
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score40%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing9%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.3489σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#554 of 2716
Top 20.40% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+1.2%
1M+14.2%
6M+9.5%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹359.01
200 DMA₹432.7
150 DMA Slope-8.0992%Declining
Relative Strength+14.96%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.7781
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (10).
FORCEMOTFORCE MOTORS LTD
5 Risk
Sector %ile20th
Delta-5
Active Flags4
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

TMPVTata Motors Passenger Vehicles Limited
30 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta-10
Active Flags7
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY2026341,36982,64513,04169,953
FY2025445,93928,14963,10262,499
FY2024443,87831,80767,91598,500
FY2023350,6002,69035,388125,660