Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹147.88(▲0.62%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

TNPLTNPL Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: TNPL Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Paper & Paper Products

Risk ClassWatch

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress

Flagium AI Risk Score

20 / 100

-8 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

16.7th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹147.88▲0.62%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress

+20.0 pts

Final Composite Risk20 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 4 → 20 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Margin Compression
Inventory Stress
Relative Growth Weakness

What to Watch Next Quarter

Working capital efficiency
Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 65.6%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ1 FY2026

Operating margin declined by 4.0 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 6 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ1 FY2026

TNPL: Net Profit collapsed by 133.8% from FY2025 Q1 to FY2026 Q1.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ1 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

Inventory growth (6.6%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-5.1%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 11 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

TNPL: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.84x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Earnings buffer for interest payments is narrowing. Monitor for margin pressure."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ1 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2024

TNPL: Revenue fell 8.9% while Debt rose 67.7% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	7.5	13.49	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+46.0	+37.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Paper & Paper Products (n=13 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹147.88(+0.62%)

1M Divergence-3.99%

1 Week-0.06%

1 Month-1.72%

6 Months+5.28%

1 Year-9.92%

2 Year-38.89%

3 Year-30.35%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

TNPL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.8%

Trend QualityEarly Base

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score37.5%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing8%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.0323σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1049 of 2716

Top 38.62% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-0.1%

1M-1.7%

6M+5.3%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹142.57

200 DMA₹146.11

150 DMA Slope-0.3677%Declining

Relative Strength+11.04%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.8657

ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (29).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
TNPLTNPL	20	17th	-8	8	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
ANDHRAPAPANDHRA PAPER LIMITED	25	42th	-5	32	+0	Earnings QualityWatch
KUANTUMKUANTUM	40	83th	+4	40	+1	Earnings QualityModerate Deterioration
ABRELAditya Birla Real Estate Limited	60	100th	+18	42	+1	Balance Sheet StressElevated Structural Stress