TRELTREL Forensic Risk Analysis

Logistics Solution Provider
Risk ClassWatch
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverCompetitive Position
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
30 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in competitive position. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

90.9th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹26.2▲2.1%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position
+15.0 pts
Earnings Quality
+9.6 pts
Stability Adjustment
+5.0 pts
Final Composite Risk30 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 30 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Profit Collapse
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (3)

CriticalHigh
Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 9.7 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (11.0%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
TREL: Net Profit collapsed by 69.7% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)5.455.73✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+36.0+52.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Logistics Solution Provider (n=23 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹26.2(+2.1%)
1M Divergence-2.29%
1 Week+6.16%
1 Month-1.91%
6 Months+2.75%
1 Year-21.79%
2 Year-38.43%
3 Year-23.59%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in competitive position suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

TREL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.5%
Trend QualityEarly Base
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score30%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing5%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.0352σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1057 of 2716
Top 38.92% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+6.2%
1M-1.9%
6M+2.8%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹26.18
200 DMA₹27.62
150 DMA Slope-2.4236%Declining
Relative Strength+7.64%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.5722
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (14).
ARSHIYAArshiya Limited
0 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta0
Active Flags11
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

ACCURACYAccuracy Shipping Limited
24 Risk
Sector %ile86th
Delta+5
Active Flags20
Accel+2
Competitive Position

Watch

TRELTREL
30 Risk
Sector %ile91th
Delta-5
Active Flags3
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
5.252th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Margin Compression

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261043743-
FY20251095385-
FY20241202507558