TRITURBINETriveni Turbine Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Heavy Electrical Equipment
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹14,930 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
28 / 100
+2 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is gradually increasing.

83.3th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹689.25▼0.76%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+15.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+13.2 pts
Final Composite Risk28 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 28 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
TRITURBINE: EBITDA margin compressed by 4.4 bps YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 41.0%.

"Working capital cycle is stretching dangerously. This is putting severe strain on daily operations."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (27.2%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (0.7%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
TRITURBINE: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)6.186.30✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+38.0+55.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Heavy Electrical Equipment (n=31 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹689.25(-0.76%)
1M Divergence+17.97%
1 Week-0.17%
1 Month+20.24%
6 Months+28.63%
1 Year+20.76%
2 Year+18.98%
3 Year+80.78%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently consolidating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Continued monitoring is necessary as risk levels remain above institutional safety parameters.

TRITURBINE • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.98%
Trend QualityStrong
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score85%
Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)
Probability of Advancing98%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+1.3143σ
Strong positive momentum leadership
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#170 of 2716
Top 6.26% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-0.2%
1M+20.2%
6M+28.6%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹526.31
200 DMA₹525.16
150 DMA Slope+3.0016%Rising
Relative Strength+34.12%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)4.5366
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (11).
AARTECHAartech Solonics Limited
4 Risk
Sector %ile17th
Delta-5
Active Flags4
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

BAJELBajel Projects Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile77th
Delta-5
Active Flags22
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

TRITURBINETriveni Turbine Limited
28 Risk
Sector %ile83th
Delta+2
Active Flags5
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
3.434th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20262,258349111-
FY20252,087359187-
FY20241,716269271-
FY20231,290193196-