TRIVENITriveni Engineering & Industries Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Sugar
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹8,640 Cr
Primary DriverGrowth Sustainability
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
18 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in growth sustainability. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

23.1th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹366.65▲0.26%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+8.8 pts
Earnings Quality
+7.9 pts
Stability Adjustment
-9.0 pts
Final Composite Risk18 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 9 → 18 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (10)

CriticalHigh
Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2025
Operating margin declined by 8.0 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (9.1%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-4.8%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
TRIVENI: Net Profit collapsed by 93.2% from FY2025 Q1 to FY2026 Q1.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalFY2026
TRIVENI: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Industrial Margin Stress
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
TRIVENI: Raw material costs consumed an additional 3.5% of revenue YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 13.0%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
TRIVENI: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.35x in FY2026 Q2 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2025
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
TRIVENI: Revenue fell 2.8% while Debt rose 54.8% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)7.5811.92✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+48.0+44.5✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Sugar (n=14 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹366.65(+0.26%)
1M Divergence-13.33%
1 Week-2.87%
1 Month-11.06%
6 Months+4.03%
1 Year-13.94%
2 Year+13.27%
3 Year+38.38%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in growth sustainability remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

TRIVENI • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.60%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score42.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing60%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.4730σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2018 of 2716
Top 74.30% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-2.9%
1M-11.1%
6M+4.0%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹372.86
200 DMA₹366.24
150 DMA Slope+1.3089%Rising
Relative Strength+9.52%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.9756
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (21.5).
TRIVENITriveni Engineering & Industries Limited
18 Risk
Sector %ile23th
Delta+5
Active Flags10
Accel+1
Growth Sustainability

Stable

BAJAJHINDBajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited
23 Risk
Sector %ile62th
Delta-5
Active Flags25
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

AVADHSUGARAvadh Sugar & Energy Limited
29 Risk
Sector %ile77th
Delta-5
Active Flags24
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

DCMSRINDDCMSRIND
35 Risk
Sector %ile85th
Delta0
Active Flags28
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
4.747.2th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
5.656th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Industrial Margin Stress

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20267,6972691882,147
FY20256,866238-1061,969
FY20246,2133951001,411
FY20236,3911,792397911