TVSSCSTVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Logistics Solution Provider
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹4,335 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
13 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

36.4th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹114.05▲1.35%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+5.8 pts
Stability Adjustment
+7.0 pts
Final Composite Risk13 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 11 → 13 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Operating Leverage Stress
  • Profit Collapse
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (4)

CriticalHigh
Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
TVSSCS: Net Profit collapsed by 172.9% from FY2024 Q4 to FY2025 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 11 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
TVSSCS: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.57x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Earnings buffer for interest payments is narrowing. Monitor for margin pressure."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (11.0%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)2.175.73✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+53.0+52.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Logistics Solution Provider (n=23 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹114.05(+1.35%)
1M Divergence-0.78%
1 Week-7.55%
1 Month-0.4%
6 Months+7.56%
1 Year-9.78%
2 Year-33.23%
3 Year-43.02%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

TVSSCS • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.5%
Trend QualityEarly Base
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score30%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing5%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.0886σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1171 of 2716
Top 43.11% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-7.5%
1M-0.4%
6M+7.6%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹111.59
200 DMA₹115.93
150 DMA Slope-1.1030%Declining
Relative Strength+12.05%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.2994
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (14).
ASPINWALLAspinwall and Company Limited
10 Risk
Sector %ile18th
Delta-5
Active Flags15
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

TVSSCSTVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited
13 Risk
Sector %ile36th
Delta-5
Active Flags4
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

ACCURACYAccuracy Shipping Limited
24 Risk
Sector %ile86th
Delta+5
Active Flags20
Accel+2
Competitive Position

Watch

ALLCARGOAllcargo Logistics Limited
30 Risk
Sector %ile91th
Delta-5
Active Flags25
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
6.261.6th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202611,0411177461,110
FY202510,029-10672859
FY20249,255-90128794