UJJIVANSFBUjjivan Small Finance Bank Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Other Bank
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹10,869 Cr
Primary DriverGovernance
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
32 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Early signs of pressure are emerging in asset quality. Pressure is receding in governance. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

62.5th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹53.18▼1.28%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment
+32.0 pts
Final Composite Risk32 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 32 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • GNPA Spike
  • Provision Coverage Weakening
  • NIM Compression
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (3)

CriticalHigh
GNPA Spike
🔭 Relative Sector RiskQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
UJJIVANSFB: GNPA spiked by 52 bps YoY to 2.52%.

"Asset quality signals are beginning to normalize. Historical credit costs are now receding."

Provision Coverage Weakening
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
UJJIVANSFB: Provision Coverage Ratio (PCR) dropped to 72.9% while GNPA grew by 19.7%.

"Asset quality signals are beginning to normalize. Historical credit costs are now receding."

NIM Compression
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 8 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
UJJIVANSFB: NIM compressed by 139 bps YoY (to 7.47%).

"Pressure on core margins is stabilizing. Monitor for sustained interest income recovery."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)9.0919.17✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+34.0+40.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Other Bank (n=9 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹53.18(-1.28%)
1M Divergence-5.84%
1 Week-4.02%
1 Month-6.5%
6 Months-1.52%
1 Year+19.53%
2 Year+10.56%
3 Year+53.79%
Sector Average (1M)-0.66%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in governance suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in structural transparency and audit trails, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

UJJIVANSFB • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.45%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score42.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing45%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.5337σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2118 of 2716
Top 77.98% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-4.0%
1M-6.5%
6M-1.5%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹56.42
200 DMA₹53.72
150 DMA Slope+2.0977%Rising
Relative Strength+3.97%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.1137
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (26).
CAPITALSFBCapital Small Finance Bank Limited
10 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta+5
Active Flags3
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Stable

AUBANKAU Small Finance Bank Limited
26 Risk
Sector %ile50th
Delta-5
Active Flags15
Accel+0
Governance

Watch

UJJIVANSFBUjjivan Small Finance Bank Limited
32 Risk
Sector %ile63th
Delta-5
Active Flags3
Accel+0
Governance

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

NIM Compression

2026

NIM Compression

2026

GNPA Spike

2026

Provision Coverage Weakening

2025

NIM Compression

2025

NIM Compression

2025

GNPA Spike

2025

NIM Compression

2025

GNPA Spike

2025

NIM Compression

2024

NIM Compression

2024

NIM Compression

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20268,0396931,8433,736
FY20257,2017262,0282,845
FY20246,4641,2811,5822,171