Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹993.15(▲5%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

UNIMECHUnimech Aerospace and Manufacturing Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Unimech Aerospace and Manufacturing Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Aerospace & Defense

Risk ClassWatch

Market Cap₹4,058 Cr

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

35 / 100

+20 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

80.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹993.15▲5%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+15.0 pts

Stability Adjustment

+20.0 pts

Final Composite Risk35 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 35 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

🚨 Escalate

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Margin Compression
Industrial Margin Stress
Working Capital Expansion

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Working capital efficiency
Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

UNIMECH: EBITDA margin compressed by 6.5 bps YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Capex Efficiency Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Aggressive Capex (31.1%) amidst slow revenue growth (-73.2%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 41.7%.

"Working capital cycle is stretching dangerously. This is putting severe strain on daily operations."

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Operating margin declined by 8.9 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

UNIMECH: Net Profit collapsed by 84.7% from FY2025 Q3 to FY2026 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Risk Trajectory

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Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	7	7.38	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+31.0	+46.0	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Aerospace & Defense (n=21 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹993.15(+5%)

1M Divergence-3.19%

1 Week+2.76%

1 Month-0.92%

6 Months+0.13%

1 Year-20.23%

2 Year-27.84%

3 Year-27.84%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

UNIMECH • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.10%

Trend QualityStabilizing

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score55%

Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)

Probability of Advancing10%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.2632σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#639 of 2716

Top 23.53% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W+2.8%

1M-0.9%

6M+0.1%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹925.69

200 DMA₹953.32

150 DMA Slope-0.2590%Declining

Relative Strength+7.63%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.3495

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (20).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AEQUSAequs Limited	20	50th	+15	3	+2	Balance Sheet StressWatch
AVANTELAvantel Limited	30	60th	-5	13	+0	Earnings QualityWatch
UNIMECHUnimech Aerospace and Manufacturing Limited	35	80th	+20	6	+1	Earnings QualityWatch
DCXINDIADCXINDIA	53	100th	+18	29	+1	Earnings QualityModerate Deterioration