Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹641.65(▼0.56%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

UPLUPL Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: UPL Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Pesticides & Agrochemicals

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹52,617 Cr

Primary DriverGovernance

Flagium AI Risk Score

12 / 100

-5 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in governance. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

38.9th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹641.65▼0.56%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment

+12.0 pts

Final Composite Risk12 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 4 → 12 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Relative Growth Weakness
Working Capital Expansion

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover
Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ1 FY2025

UPL: Net Profit collapsed by 616.7% from FY2024 Q1 to FY2025 Q1.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

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Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 10 Qtrs

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Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

UPL: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.97x in FY2026 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Inventory growth (14.8%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (9.5%).

"Slight build-up in inventory detected. Monitor for slowing sales momentum."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2024

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 34.9%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2024

UPL: Revenue fell 19.4% while Debt rose 23.6% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	4.83	7.62	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+54.0	+46.5	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Pesticides & Agrochemicals (n=18 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹641.65(-0.56%)

1M Divergence-2.3%

1 Week-2.04%

1 Month-0.03%

6 Months-15.18%

1 Year+1.76%

2 Year+27.49%

3 Year-3.59%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in governance remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of structural transparency and audit trails confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

UPL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.1%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score0%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing1%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.3106σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1673 of 2716

Top 61.60% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-2.0%

1M-0.0%

6M-15.2%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹698.26

200 DMA₹696.29

150 DMA Slope-0.5601%Declining

Relative Strength-9.69%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.7548

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (19.5).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
UPLUPL Limited	12	39th	-5	6	+0	GovernanceStable
ADVANCEAdvance Agrolife Limited	14	44th	+5	3	+1	Growth SustainabilityStable
ASTECAstec LifeSciences Limited	25	67th	-5	26	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
BESTAGROBest Agrolife Limited	47	94th	+33	15	+2	Balance Sheet StressModerate Deterioration