UTKARSHBNKUTKARSHBNK Forensic Risk Analysis

Other Bank
Risk ClassModerate Deterioration
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverSolvency
Flagium AI Risk Score
Moderate stress emerging. While not critical, underlying pressure is building.
41 / 100
-8 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Early signs of pressure are emerging in asset quality. Pressure is receding in solvency. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

100.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹13.06▲0.15%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Solvency
+18.5 pts
Earnings Quality
+12.0 pts
Stability Adjustment
+11.0 pts
Final Composite Risk41 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 41 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • GNPA Spike
  • CAR Decay
  • Provision Coverage Weakening
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (4)

CriticalHigh
GNPA Spike
🔭 Relative Sector RiskQuarterlyActive for 7 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
UTKARSHBNK: GNPA spiked by 505 bps YoY to 11.05%.

"Asset quality signals are beginning to normalize. Historical credit costs are now receding."

Provision Coverage Weakening
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
UTKARSHBNK: Provision Coverage Ratio (PCR) dropped to 62.7% while GNPA grew by 216.7%.

"Asset quality signals are beginning to normalize. Historical credit costs are now receding."

NIM Compression
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 8 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
UTKARSHBNK: NIM compressed by 82 bps YoY (to 5.26%).

"Early signs of margin compression detected. Core interest income is being squeezed."

CAR Decay
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
UTKARSHBNK: High velocity erosion (595 bps) in vigilance zone.

"Early signs of capital erosion. Internal accruals are not enough to support loan growth."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)6.2719.17✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+25.0+40.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Other Bank (n=9 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹13.06(+0.15%)
1M Divergence-8.83%
1 Week-3.26%
1 Month-9.49%
6 Months-18.58%
1 Year-46.19%
2 Year-74.37%
3 Year-74.4%
Sector Average (1M)-0.66%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Moderate Stress and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in solvency suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in solvency ratios and structural leverage, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

UTKARSHBNK • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.4966σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2052 of 2716
Top 75.55% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-3.3%
1M-9.5%
6M-18.6%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹14.53
200 DMA₹16.06
150 DMA Slope-5.1412%Declining
Relative Strength-13.09%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.5929
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (26).
CAPITALSFBCapital Small Finance Bank Limited
10 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta+5
Active Flags3
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Stable

AUBANKAU Small Finance Bank Limited
26 Risk
Sector %ile50th
Delta-5
Active Flags15
Accel+0
Governance

Watch

ESAFSFBESAFSFB
34 Risk
Sector %ile75th
Delta-8
Active Flags15
Accel+0
Governance

Watch

UTKARSHBNKUTKARSHBNK
41 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta-8
Active Flags4
Accel+0
Solvency

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
4.747.2th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
5.252th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

CAR Decay

2026

NIM Compression

2026

GNPA Spike

2026

NIM Compression

2026

Provision Coverage Weakening

2026

GNPA Spike

2026

NIM Compression

2026

CAR Decay

2026

NIM Compression

2026

GNPA Spike

2026

CAR Decay

2026

Provision Coverage Weakening

2025

NIM Compression

2025

GNPA Spike

2025

Provision Coverage Weakening

2025

NIM Compression

2025

GNPA Spike

2025

Provision Coverage Weakening

2025

CAR Decay

2025

NIM Compression

2025

GNPA Spike

2025

NIM Compression

2025

GNPA Spike

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20263,810-1,1517812,829
FY20254,365248762,355
FY20243,5794989911,995