Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹231.66(▼0.99%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

UTTAMSUGARUTTAMSUGAR Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: UTTAMSUGAR Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Sugar

Risk ClassStable

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress

Flagium AI Risk Score

9 / 100

-4 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

7.7th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹231.66▼0.99%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress

+8.8 pts

Final Composite Risk9 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 9 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Industrial Margin Stress
Working Capital Expansion

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover
Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Industrial Margin Stress

📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

UTTAMSUGAR: EBITDA margin compressed by 7.3 bps YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs

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Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

UTTAMSUGAR: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.13x in FY2026 Q2 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

UTTAMSUGAR: Net Profit collapsed by 190.5% from FY2024 Q2 to FY2025 Q2.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2024

Inventory growth (9.3%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-11.8%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -17.1%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2025

UTTAMSUGAR: Revenue fell 9.8% while Debt rose 9.5% in 2025 vs 2024.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	8.33	11.92	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+57.0	+44.5	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Sugar (n=14 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹231.66(-0.99%)

1M Divergence-12%

1 Week-4.86%

1 Month-9.73%

6 Months+0.33%

1 Year-25.45%

2 Year-23.58%

3 Year-11.36%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

UTTAMSUGAR • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.2%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score15%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing2%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.1915σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1392 of 2716

Top 51.25% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-4.9%

1M-9.7%

6M+0.3%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹234.01

200 DMA₹239.87

150 DMA Slope-0.5177%Declining

Relative Strength+5.82%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)2.1203

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (21.5).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
UTTAMSUGARUTTAMSUGAR	9	8th	-4	6	+0	Balance Sheet StressStable
DALMIASUGDALMIASUG	15	15th	+5	13	+3	Competitive PositionStable
BAJAJHINDBajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited	23	62th	-5	25	+0	Competitive PositionWatch
AVADHSUGARAvadh Sugar & Energy Limited	29	77th	-5	24	+0	Competitive PositionWatch