Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹234.74(▲4.25%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

VAIBHAVGBLVaibhav Global Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Vaibhav Global Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Gems Jewellery And Watches

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹3,720 Cr

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

16 / 100

+5 QoQ

Deteriorating

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

82.6th %ile (Sector)Accel: +4 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹234.74▲4.25%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+10.8 pts

Competitive Position

+10.6 pts

Stability Adjustment

-5.0 pts

Final Composite Risk16 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 16 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

🚨 Escalate

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Industrial Margin Stress
Relative Growth Weakness

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (2)

CriticalHigh

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

VAIBHAVGBL: Raw material costs consumed an additional 10.5% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Risk Trajectory

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Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	1.45	6.37	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+50.0	+52.5	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Gems Jewellery And Watches (n=24 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

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Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹234.74(+4.25%)

1M Divergence+5.82%

1 Week+3.18%

1 Month+8.09%

6 Months+0.62%

1 Year-4.92%

2 Year-27.3%

3 Year-17.19%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

VAIBHAVGBL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.47%

Trend QualityStabilizing

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score55%

Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)

Probability of Advancing47%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.1375σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#755 of 2716

Top 27.80% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W+3.2%

1M+8.1%

6M+0.6%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹228.36

200 DMA₹227.13

150 DMA Slope-0.0675%Declining

Relative Strength+6.17%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.4513

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (13.5).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AUSOMENTAusom Enterprise Limited	12	43th	+1	11	+3	Earnings QualityStable
VAIBHAVGBLVaibhav Global Limited	16	83th	+5	2	+4	Earnings QualityStable
LGHLLGHL	35	100th	+20	22	+1	Earnings QualityWatch