Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹33.74(▲0%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

VASCONEQVASCONEQ Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: VASCONEQ Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Residential Commercial Projects

Risk ClassStable

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

10 / 100

+5 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

49.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +2 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹33.74▲0%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+19.4 pts

Stability Adjustment

-9.0 pts

Final Composite Risk10 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 7 → 10 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Operating Leverage Stress
Profit Collapse
Low Interest Coverage

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Debt growth
Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

VASCONEQ: Net Profit collapsed by 83.5% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

VASCONEQ: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Negative FCF Streak

⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

VASCONEQ: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

VASCONEQ: Revenue fell 9.7% while Debt rose 45.7% in 2026 vs 2025.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2024

VASCONEQ: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.35x in FY2024 Q2 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	3.75	5.31	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+56.0	+56.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Residential Commercial Projects (n=50 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹33.74(+0%)

1M Divergence-18.61%

1 Week-2.09%

1 Month-18.23%

6 Months-30.29%

1 Year-39.71%

2 Year-46.32%

3 Year-21.72%

Sector Average (1M)+0.38%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

VASCONEQ • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score0%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.9233σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#2501 of 2716

Top 92.08% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-2.1%

1M-18.2%

6M-30.3%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹43.67

200 DMA₹47.27

150 DMA Slope-8.2874%Declining

Relative Strength-26.69%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.2167

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (10).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AGIILAgi Infra Limited	5	31th	+5	1	+1	Competitive PositionStable
VASCONEQVASCONEQ	10	49th	+5	6	+2	Earnings QualityStable
ARIHANTSUPArihant Superstructures Limited	30	73th	-5	17	+0	Earnings QualityWatch
AMJLANDAmj Land Holdings Limited	35	80th	+35	3	+1	Earnings QualityWatch