VBLVarun Beverages Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Other Beverages
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹1,50,503 Cr
Primary DriverGovernance
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
4 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in governance. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

0.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹537▲2.19%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment
+4.0 pts
Final Composite Risk4 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 6 → 4 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Working Capital Expansion
  • Operating Leverage Stress
  • Capex Efficiency Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (4)

CriticalHigh
Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
VBL: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"Free cash flow pressure is easing as capital intensity or working capital stress recedes."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 28.6%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (22.5%) amidst slow revenue growth (-1.9%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2025
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)5.834.71⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+62.0+62.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Other Beverages (n=1 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹537(+2.19%)
1M Divergence+2.27%
1 Week+1.07%
1 Month+4.54%
6 Months+12.15%
1 Year+11.84%
2 Year-5.35%
3 Year+59.7%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in governance remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of structural transparency and audit trails confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

VBL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.78%
Trend QualityDeveloping
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score75%
Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)
Probability of Advancing78%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.4926σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#452 of 2716
Top 16.64% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+1.1%
1M+4.5%
6M+12.2%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹468.17
200 DMA₹469.4
150 DMA Slope+1.9945%Rising
Relative Strength+17.64%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.3972
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (4).
VBLVarun Beverages Limited
4 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta-5
Active Flags4
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Negative FCF Streak

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202522,5783,0623,5092,508
FY202420,6032,6343,3812,826
FY202316,4002,1022,3915,431
FY202213,4291,5501,7903,695