VGUARDV-Guard Industries Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Household Appliances
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹13,583 Cr
Primary DriverGovernance
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
5 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in governance. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

0.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹303.75▲1.18%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment
+5.0 pts
Final Composite Risk5 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 5 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Operating Leverage Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (4)

CriticalHigh
Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (7.9%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (3.7%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2024
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -11.2%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)3.189.85✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+61.0+41.5✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Household Appliances (n=20 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹303.75(+1.18%)
1M Divergence-10.28%
1 Week-3.4%
1 Month-8.01%
6 Months-10.13%
1 Year-18.63%
2 Year-17.43%
3 Year+21.7%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in governance remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of structural transparency and audit trails confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

VGUARD • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score7.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.5301σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2113 of 2716
Top 77.80% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-3.4%
1M-8.0%
6M-10.1%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹330.31
200 DMA₹338.89
150 DMA Slope-1.7944%Declining
Relative Strength-5.11%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.0563
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (24.5).
VGUARDV-Guard Industries Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta-5
Active Flags4
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

BLUESTARCOBlue Star Limited
10 Risk
Sector %ile21th
Delta0
Active Flags9
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Stable

AMBERAmber Enterprises India Limited
29 Risk
Sector %ile53th
Delta-5
Active Flags18
Accel+0
Governance

Watch

BAJAJELECBajaj Electricals Limited
41 Risk
Sector %ile84th
Delta0
Active Flags25
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Inventory Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20265,9893084599
FY20255,59931447711
FY20244,891258393291
FY20234,142189424420