VHLTDVHLTD Forensic Risk Analysis

Hotels & Resorts
Risk ClassStable
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
10 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

53.6th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹140.74▲0%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+5.3 pts
Stability Adjustment
+5.0 pts
Final Composite Risk10 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 11 → 10 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Profit Collapse
  • Low Interest Coverage
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (4)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (11.0%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
VHLTD: Net Profit collapsed by 92.7% from FY2025 Q2 to FY2026 Q2.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
VHLTD: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
VHLTD: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.04x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Earnings buffer for interest payments is narrowing. Monitor for margin pressure."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)3.422.78⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+56.0+57.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Hotels & Resorts (n=29 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹140.74(+0%)
1M Divergence-0.1%
1 Week+0.61%
1 Month+0.28%
6 Months+12.89%
1 Year+34.96%
2 Year+89.55%
3 Year-52.29%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

VHLTD • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.90%
Trend QualityDeveloping
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score65%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing90%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.1559σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1320 of 2716
Top 48.60% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+0.6%
1M+0.3%
6M+12.9%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹136.13
200 DMA₹131.06
150 DMA Slope+1.7075%Rising
Relative Strength+14.41%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.4929
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (9).
VHLTDVHLTD
10 Risk
Sector %ile54th
Delta-5
Active Flags4
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

ADVANIHOTRAdvani Hotels & Resorts (India) Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile82th
Delta+5
Active Flags14
Accel+4
Competitive Position

Watch

AHLEASTAsian Hotels (East) Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile93th
Delta-8
Active Flags24
Accel+0
Governance

Watch

HLVLTDHLVLTD
35 Risk
Sector %ile93th
Delta0
Active Flags14
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
6.564.8th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261501858264
FY2025141783252
FY20241392-159168