VINATIORGAVinati Organics Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Specialty Chemicals
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹14,698 Cr
Primary DriverCompetitive Position
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
14 / 100
+4 QoQ
Deteriorating
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in competitive position. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

26.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +3 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹1,314.3▲0.54%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position
+14.4 pts
Final Composite Risk14 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 4 → 14 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating profit margins
  • Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (10.8%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-1.6%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (22.7%) amidst slow revenue growth (-1.6%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2024
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 4.8%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
VINATIORGA: Revenue fell 10.1% while Debt rose 2211.3% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)410.68✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+52.0+46.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Specialty Chemicals (n=51 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹1,314.3(+0.54%)
1M Divergence-2.87%
1 Week-1.5%
1 Month-0.61%
6 Months-16.22%
1 Year-28.4%
2 Year-23.85%
3 Year-26.98%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in competitive position remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

VINATIORGA • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.5543σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2149 of 2716
Top 79.12% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-1.5%
1M-0.6%
6M-16.2%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹1,482.05
200 DMA₹1,536.44
150 DMA Slope-3.2216%Declining
Relative Strength-10.73%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.5242
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (20).
VINATIORGAVinati Organics Limited
14 Risk
Sector %ile26th
Delta+4
Active Flags5
Accel+3
Competitive Position

Stable

AARTIINDAarti Industries Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile46th
Delta-5
Active Flags24
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

ANURASAnupam Rasayan India Limited
31 Risk
Sector %ile78th
Delta+16
Active Flags29
Accel+2
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

ACIArchean Chemical Industries Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile84th
Delta+20
Active Flags22
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
0.44th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Capex Efficiency Stress

2024

Revenue-Debt Divergence

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20262,280444558-
FY20252,29240545863
FY20241,9393233325
FY20232,1574585770