Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹1,240.4(▲0.98%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

VOLTASVoltas Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Voltas Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Household Appliances

Risk ClassWatch

Market Cap₹49,633 Cr

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

35 / 100

+5 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

73.7th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹1,240.4▲0.98%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+15.0 pts

Competitive Position

+15.0 pts

Stability Adjustment

+5.0 pts

Final Composite Risk35 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 35 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Margin Compression
Inventory Stress
Relative Growth Weakness

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover
Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Operating margin declined by 5.0 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Industrial Margin Stress

📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 6 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

VOLTAS: EBITDA margin compressed by 3.1 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 3.5% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

VOLTAS: Net Profit collapsed by 51.9% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Inventory growth (47.9%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-11.5%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

VOLTAS: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

VOLTAS: Revenue fell 8.0% while Debt rose 11.9% in 2026 vs 2025.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	5.91	9.85	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+31.0	+41.5	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Household Appliances (n=20 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹1,240.4(+0.98%)

1M Divergence-15.55%

1 Week-2.44%

1 Month-13.28%

6 Months-6.69%

1 Year+0.11%

2 Year-7.93%

3 Year+53.68%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

VOLTAS • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.2%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score7.5%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing2%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.7001σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#2318 of 2716

Top 85.35% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-2.4%

1M-13.3%

6M-6.7%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹1,386.56

200 DMA₹1,384.6

150 DMA Slope-0.9535%Declining

Relative Strength-1.21%Neutral

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.0546

ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (24.5).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
BLUESTARCOBlue Star Limited	10	21th	0	9	+0	Competitive PositionStable
AMBERAmber Enterprises India Limited	29	53th	-5	18	+0	GovernanceWatch
VOLTASVoltas Limited	35	74th	+5	8	+1	Earnings QualityWatch
EPACKEPACK	49	95th	+12	24	+1	Balance Sheet StressModerate Deterioration