VSTINDVST Industries Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Cigarettes & Tobacco Products
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹3,907 Cr
Primary DriverGovernance
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
15 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in governance. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

100.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹255▲0.67%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment
+15.0 pts
Final Composite Risk15 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 15 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
VSTIND: Net Profit collapsed by 55.8% from FY2025 Q3 to FY2026 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (14.6%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-1.4%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalFY2026
VSTIND: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 20.9%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)58.43✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+51.0+53.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Cigarettes & Tobacco Products (n=2 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹255(+0.67%)
1M Divergence-3.57%
1 Week-1.14%
1 Month-1.3%
6 Months+0.14%
1 Year-7.05%
2 Year-25.79%
3 Year-7.72%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in governance remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of structural transparency and audit trails confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

VSTIND • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.12%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score47.5%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing12%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.0289σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#933 of 2716
Top 34.35% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-1.1%
1M-1.3%
6M+0.1%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹244.42
200 DMA₹250
150 DMA Slope-0.0842%Declining
Relative Strength+5.63%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.9922
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (13).
GODFRYPHLPGodfrey Phillips India Limited
11 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta-5
Active Flags12
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

VSTINDVST Industries Limited
15 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta-5
Active Flags5
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20262,087292218-
FY20251,844290193-
FY20241,917302167-
FY20231,749327181-