Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹248.65(▼0.78%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

ZUARIINDZUARIIND Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: ZUARIIND Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Sugar

Risk ClassModerate Deterioration

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress

Flagium AI Risk Score

45 / 100

+20 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Some early signs of pressure are visible. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

100.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +2 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹248.65▼0.78%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress

+20.0 pts

Earnings Quality

+15.0 pts

Growth Sustainability

+10.0 pts

Final Composite Risk45 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 45 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🚨 Escalate

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Industrial Margin Stress
Relative Growth Weakness

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Operating cash flow
Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh

Industrial Margin Stress

📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

ZUARIIND: Raw material costs consumed an additional 7.6% of revenue YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 11 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

ZUARIIND: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 0.88x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

ZUARIIND: Net Profit collapsed by 132.7% from FY2024 Q4 to FY2025 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2025

ZUARIIND: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Inventory growth (5.7%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (3.6%).

"Slight build-up in inventory detected. Monitor for slowing sales momentum."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -1.0%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Risk Trajectory

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Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	7.83	11.92	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+21.0	+44.5	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Sugar (n=14 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹248.65(-0.78%)

1M Divergence-7.51%

1 Week-2.64%

1 Month-5.24%

6 Months-19.56%

1 Year-11.48%

2 Year-10.75%

3 Year+79.4%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Moderate Stress and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

ZUARIIND • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score0%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.5007σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#2064 of 2716

Top 75.99% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-2.6%

1M-5.2%

6M-19.6%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹281.76

200 DMA₹292.59

150 DMA Slope-4.2181%Declining

Relative Strength-14.37%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.1310

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (21.5).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
BAJAJHINDBajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited	23	62th	-5	25	+0	Competitive PositionWatch
AVADHSUGARAvadh Sugar & Energy Limited	29	77th	-5	24	+0	Competitive PositionWatch
DCMSRINDDCMSRIND	35	85th	0	28	+0	Competitive PositionWatch
ZUARIINDZUARIIND	45	100th	+20	8	+2	Balance Sheet StressModerate Deterioration