Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹635.2(▼1.11%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

AARTIPHARMAarti Pharmalabs Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Aarti Pharmalabs Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Pharmaceuticals

Risk ClassWatch

Market Cap₹6,372 Cr

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

35 / 100

0 QoQ

Stable

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure has stabilized in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. No major change in risk trend.

80.8th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹635.2▼1.11%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+15.0 pts

Competitive Position

+15.0 pts

Stability Adjustment

+5.0 pts

Final Composite Risk35 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 35 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Margin Compression
Inventory Stress
Relative Growth Weakness

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Working capital efficiency
Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Operating margin declined by 7.5 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years

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Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

AARTIPHARM: EBITDA margin compressed by 6.8 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 5.2% of revenue YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Capex Efficiency Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Aggressive Capex (51.7%) amidst slow revenue growth (-9.5%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2024

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 244.6%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

Inventory growth (19.5%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (4.9%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

AARTIPHARM: Revenue fell 13.9% while Debt rose 73.0% in 2026 vs 2025.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	7.5	7.70	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+31.0	+47.0	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Pharmaceuticals (n=99 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹635.2(-1.11%)

1M Divergence-16.46%

1 Week-8.55%

1 Month-14.19%

6 Months-12.01%

1 Year-28.3%

2 Year+14.14%

3 Year+76.89%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently consolidating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Continued monitoring is necessary as risk levels remain above institutional safety parameters.

AARTIPHARM • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score7.5%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.8508σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#2454 of 2716

Top 90.35% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-8.6%

1M-14.2%

6M-12.0%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹725.41

200 DMA₹757.11

150 DMA Slope-2.2196%Declining

Relative Strength-6.52%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.8592

ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (19).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AAREYDRUGSAarey Drugs & Pharmaceuticals Limited	23	63th	-5	20	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
AARTIPHARMAarti Pharmalabs Limited	35	81th	0	8	+0	Earnings QualityWatch
ALBERTDAVDAlbert David Limited	37	90th	-8	27	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
CIPLACipla Limited	48	99th	+32	15	+5	Earnings QualityModerate Deterioration