Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹235.93(▲1.56%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

ADANIPOWERAdani Power Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Adani Power Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Integrated Power Utilities

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹2,66,322 Cr

Primary DriverCompetitive Position

Flagium AI Risk Score

15 / 100

-5 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile is stable with manageable leverage. Pressure is receding in competitive position. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

20.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹235.93▲1.56%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position

+14.4 pts

Stability Adjustment

+1.0 pts

Final Composite Risk15 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 7 → 15 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Margin Compression
Relative Growth Weakness
Operating Leverage Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Operating cash flow
Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (11.0%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

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Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ1 FY2026

Operating margin declined by 2.9 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

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Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ1 FY2025

ADANIPOWER: Net Profit collapsed by 55.3% from FY2024 Q1 to FY2025 Q1.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

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Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2025

ADANIPOWER: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

ADANIPOWER: Revenue fell 1.8% while Debt rose 39.7% in 2026 vs 2025.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	3.5	8.23	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+51.0	+42.5	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Integrated Power Utilities (n=6 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹235.93(+1.56%)

1M Divergence+5.97%

1 Week-3.52%

1 Month+6.35%

6 Months+65.3%

1 Year+112.51%

2 Year+56.08%

3 Year+361.43%

Sector Average (1M)+0.38%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in competitive position remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

ADANIPOWER • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.99%

Trend QualityStrong

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score100%

Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)

Probability of Advancing99%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+1.8068σ

Strong positive momentum leadership

Universe Rank#107 of 2716

Top 3.94% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-3.5%

1M+6.3%

6M+65.3%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹164.38

200 DMA₹157.32

150 DMA Slope+6.3224%Rising

Relative Strength+70.79%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.8346

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (23.5).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
CESCCESC Limited	11	0th	-5	13	+0	Competitive PositionStable
ADANIPOWERAdani Power Limited	15	20th	-5	6	+0	Competitive PositionStable
DPSCLTDDPSCLTD	29	60th	0	20	+0	Earnings QualityWatch
RELINFRAReliance Infrastructure Limited	35	80th	+8	18	+1	Competitive PositionWatch