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Updated10 Jul 2026

Market Price

₹30.28(▲0.93%)

Analysis throughQ4 FY26

AGROPHOSAgro Phos India Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Agro Phos India Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Chemicals

Risk ClassWatch

Market Cap₹61 Cr

Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress

Flagium AI Risk Score

35 / 100

0 QoQ

Stable

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure has stabilized in balance sheet stress. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. No major change in risk trend.

79.2th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Market Context

🟢Confirming

|Market behavior remains consistent with deteriorating financial conditions.

Updated10 Jul 2026

Market Price

₹30.28▲0.93%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Risk Score Composition
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress

+19.4 pts

Earnings Quality

+15.0 pts

Stability Adjustment

+1.0 pts

Final Composite Risk35 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 10 → 35 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Margin Compression
Industrial Margin Stress
Operating Leverage Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Debt growth
Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 6 Qtrs

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

AGROPHOS: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.27x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

View Risk Details

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Operating margin declined by 7.3 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

View Risk Details

Industrial Margin Stress

📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

AGROPHOS: EBITDA margin compressed by 7.4 bps YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

View Risk Details

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

View Risk Details

🟡 HighWorking Capital Expansion💧 Liquidity & Coverage

Q4 FY2026Active: 5 Yrs

Show Analysis

🟡 HighProfit Collapse📊 Earnings Quality

Q4 FY2026Active: 4 Qtrs

Show Analysis

🟡 HighCash Conversion Deficit📊 Earnings Quality

FY2026Active: 2 Yrs

Show Analysis

🟡 HighRevenue-Debt Divergence🏛️ Solvency & Leverage

FY2024Active: 1 Yrs

Show Analysis

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	12.27	9.32	⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+31.0	+46.0	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Chemicals (n=125 peers)

Risk Profiles

Solvency

10100th %ile

VS Sector Median (8.5)

Governance

10100th %ile

VS Sector Median (8.5)

Earnings Quality

00th %ile

VS Sector Median (8.5)

Balance Sheet Stress

0.33.2th %ile

VS Sector Median (8.5)

Competitive Position

10100th %ile

VS Sector Median (8.5)

Growth Sustainability

10100th %ile

VS Sector Median (8.5)

Valuation & Expectations Intelligence
Forensic valuation overlay. Evaluates market-implied growth expectations using reverse DCF and tracks relative peer pricing.

Valuation Summary

The market is pricing AGROPHOS for 29.0% long-term growth versus 18.0% historically observed growth. Current expectations appear demanding, supported by strong cash-flow generation.

Expectation Gap

+11.1%

Market expects higher growth than historical trend.

Implied Growth29.0%

Blended Hist. Growth18.0%

Valuation Risk

Low

Methodology

Reverse DCF Model

Market expectations are materially below historical business performance.

Composite Score

34/100

0–33 Low · 34–66 Moderate · 67–100 High

Growth Support

Audits if historical fundamentals
support expectations

Strong

Revenue Growth✓ Strong

Profitability✓ Healthy

Cash Flow✓ Positive

Market Pricing

Valuation context and yield boundaries

Historical Valuation

34th Percentile

Richer than 34% of its own history

FCF Yield

5.63%

Valuation Regime

Below Historical Average

AGROPHOS • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage classification is derived from trend structure, CoinTree momentum, and Weinstein market participation indicators.

Stage 4 — Declining

The company currently exhibits characteristics consistent with a Stage 4 declining structure, including weakening trend quality and deteriorating market participation metrics. The current Stage 4 regime has persisted for 30 trading sessions.

Stage Transition Conf.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score0%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Stage Transition Confidence0%

Based on historical stage-transition patterns.

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score

-0.6482σ

Weakening momentum trend

Momentum Rank#2485 of 2766

Top 89.84% in momentum strength

A/D FlowDistribution

21D Flow Score-0.40σ

Flow Trend▲ Improving

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹33.68

200 DMA₹35.69

150 DMA Slope

-3.9715%Declining

Relative Strength

-21.82%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.6816σ

Avg Turnover (200D)₹0.1 Cr

ParticipationWeak

LiquidityIlliquid — Avoid

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹30.28(+0.93%)

1M Divergence-6.6%

1 Week-1.01%

1 Month+0.2%

6 Months-20.15%

1 Year-13.39%

2 Year-34.56%

3 Year-9.15%

Sector Average (1M)+6.8%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently consolidating. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Continued monitoring is necessary as risk levels remain above institutional safety parameters. Market-implied growth expectations (29.0%) exceed historically observed growth (18.0%). Price structure is currently in Stage 4 — Declining.

Stage 4 — DecliningVal Risk: Low

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (20).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
ADVANCELowest Risk Peer Advance Agrolife Limited	11Watch	24th	+5	3	+1	Growth SustainabilityStable
AARTISURF Aarti Surfactants Limited	15Watch	37th	+2	17	+1	Earnings QualityStable
AARTIIND Aarti Industries Limited	20Watch	47th	-5	24	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
AGROPHOS Agro Phos India Limited	35Moderate	79th	0	8	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
ACI Archean Chemical Industries Limited	35Moderate	79th	+20	22	+1	Earnings QualityWatch
BESTAGROHighest Risk Peer Best Agrolife Limited	47Elevated	98th	+34	15	+2	Balance Sheet StressModerate Deterioration