AMBIKCOAmbika Cotton Mills Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Other Textile Products
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹778 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
23 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

43.9th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹1,697.6▲1.35%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+8.0 pts
Earnings Quality
+7.9 pts
Stability Adjustment
+7.0 pts
Final Composite Risk23 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 23 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Industrial Margin Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (4.5%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-1.9%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2025
AMBIKCO: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2024
AMBIKCO: Net Profit collapsed by 51.5% from FY2023 Q3 to FY2024 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Industrial Margin Stress
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 6 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
AMBIKCO: EBITDA margin compressed by 1.7 bps YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -20.5%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (20.3%) amidst slow revenue growth (-1.9%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)88.38✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+43.0+42.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Other Textile Products (n=42 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹1,697.6(+1.35%)
1M Divergence+11.69%
1 Week+1.85%
1 Month+13.96%
6 Months+37.55%
1 Year+14.06%
2 Year+18.08%
3 Year+23.85%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

AMBIKCO • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.88%
Trend QualityDeveloping
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score75%
Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)
Probability of Advancing88%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.9244σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#269 of 2716
Top 9.90% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+1.9%
1M+14.0%
6M+37.5%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹1,349.31
200 DMA₹1,368.12
150 DMA Slope+1.8424%Rising
Relative Strength+42.45%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)2.2231
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (24).
AMBIKCOAmbika Cotton Mills Limited
23 Risk
Sector %ile44th
Delta-5
Active Flags7
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

ABCOTSA B Cotspin India Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile51th
Delta-5
Active Flags10
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

AYMSYNTEXAYM Syntex Limited
34 Risk
Sector %ile78th
Delta-5
Active Flags33
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

ALOKINDSAlok Industries Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile83th
Delta+8
Active Flags23
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
4.747.2th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
660th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Industrial Margin Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202679672228-
FY20257296612951
FY202484663-13882
FY2023861112-80-