Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹439.35(▲1.02%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

AMBUJACEMAmbuja Cements Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Ambuja Cements Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Cement & Cement Products

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹1,21,589 Cr

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

12 / 100

+2 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is gradually increasing.

20.7th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹439.35▲1.02%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+12.2 pts

Final Composite Risk12 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 12 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Margin Compression
Inventory Stress
Working Capital Expansion

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Working capital efficiency
Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Operating margin declined by 10.1 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Capex Efficiency Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

Aggressive Capex (57.6%) amidst slow revenue growth (-0.1%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

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Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2024

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 525.5%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

AMBUJACEM: Net Profit collapsed by 86.0% from FY2025 Q3 to FY2026 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

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Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

AMBUJACEM: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Inventory growth (29.4%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (19.5%).

"Slight build-up in inventory detected. Monitor for slowing sales momentum."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	8.36	10.50	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+54.0	+51.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Cement & Cement Products (n=30 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹439.35(+1.02%)

1M Divergence-3.36%

1 Week-2.3%

1 Month-1.09%

6 Months-18.17%

1 Year-20.63%

2 Year-30.24%

3 Year+1.56%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

AMBUJACEM • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score7.5%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.5378σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#2123 of 2716

Top 78.17% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-2.3%

1M-1.1%

6M-18.2%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹501.93

200 DMA₹519.88

150 DMA Slope-3.3561%Declining

Relative Strength-12.68%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.1956

ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (15).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AMBUJACEMAmbuja Cements Limited	12	21th	+2	6	+1	Earnings QualityStable
ACLAndhra Cements Limited	15	38th	-5	20	+0	Balance Sheet StressStable
BIGBLOCBigbloc Construction Limited	25	72th	-5	41	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
ACCACC Limited	35	93th	+25	13	+1	Earnings QualityWatch