Institutional accumulation regime. Strong business quality combined with supportive market trend. Valuations remain balanced and supported by current metrics.
SENTINEL REVIEW
ACC Limited (ACC)โขUpdated yesterday
๐จ Structural Deterioration Signature: In FY2026, ACC Limited is experiencing severe earnings quality deterioration, marked by a 11.0% YoY decline in reported net profit to โน2,137 Cr and persistent negative operating leverage. Profitability is being eroded by margin compression, with EBIT margins collapsing from 11.9% to 5.2% YoY, while operating cash flows have sharply contracted to โน-1,358 Cr. This operating deterioration is compounded by liquidity strain: receivable days surged to 48.7, and inventory levels expanded to โน1,789 Cr, reflecting inventory stress and working capital pressure. Against this cash flow contraction, total debt remained nominal at โน0 Cr, but the operating leverage gap widened to 15.0%, signaling structural profitability risk.
- โRisk score improved (QoQ change: 0 pts)
- โProfitability margins remain stressed
- โNew risk trigger: Universal Inventory Divergence (+9.6 pts)
- โGrowth expectations are conservative
- โMarket structure is declining (Stage 4)
- โInstitutional flow regime is Strong Accumulation (1.32ฯ)
- โShare price is down -5.3% this quarter (from โน1,204.1 on 30 Sept to โน1,140.2)
- ๐ดInvestigate Profit Collapse and balance sheet impact
- ๐ Track earnings quality and working capital trends in next filing
- ๐ขMaintain routine quarterly surveillance; no governance escalation required
- 10.0 ptsGrowth Sustainability
- 9.6 ptsBalance Sheet Stress
- 9.2 ptsEarnings Quality
- 6.0 ptsMacro & Sector Calibration
Divergence Radar
Structural Matrix
Risk vs Price TimelineVisualizing the historical relationship between the structural risk score and stock price movement over time.
| Duration | Perf. | Sector Avg | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week | -2.01% | -1.46% | -0.55% |
| 1 Month | -6.04% | -6.69% | +0.65% |
| 6 Months | -19.36% | +6.82% | -26.18% |
| 1 Year | -38.37% | +8.93% | -47.29% |
| 2 Year | -49.98% | +47.64% | -97.62% |
| 3 Year | -38.87% | +125.5% | -164.36% |
Business Analysis Methodology
Business analysis focuses on structural risk inside the company. Flagium monitors earnings quality, balance sheet strength, liquidity, governance, competitive position, and growth sustainability to identify areas where risk may be increasing or decreasing before it becomes obvious in reported results.
Financial profile is stable with manageable leverage. Pressure has stabilized in growth sustainability. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. No major change in risk trend.
Risk Score Composition
Investment Risk Thesis
Current risk score has risen from 5 โ 35 over 12 quarters.
- Operating profit margins
- Inventory turnover
Risk Drivers (Active Warnings)
Primary Driver & Insights
Asset turnover is slowing down due to inventory accumulation. This indicates potential channel stuffing or weaker demand in core product segments.
Active Risk Objects (10)Free Preview (2 of 10)
ACC: Inventory growth outpaced Revenue growth by +21.5 pp (Inventory holding ratio increased +26.7%).
Slight build-up in inventory detected. Monitor for slowing sales momentum.
ACC: EBITDA margin compressed by 883 bps YoY.
Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits.
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Statutory Note: Forensic signals are algorithmic quantitative observations derived from publicly filed XBRL disclosures and do not constitute allegations of legal misconduct or investment recommendations.
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Access complete multi-quarter financial evidence, 5-KPI snapshot strips, diagnostic hypotheses, and 1-page forensic PDF dossiers for ACC Limited.
Structural Risk Attribution
Deterministic quarter-on-quarter causal decomposition grounded in statutory exchange filings.
Structural History ยท Last 12 QuartersHistorical Trajectory (12Q)
Risk profile held steady overall despite severity escalation in Industrial Margin Stress (+5.9 pts).
12-Quarter Structural Regimes & Landmark Inflections12Q Structural Regimes & Inflections
Risk deteriorated materially (+29.0 pts), driven by new Margin Compression (+16.2 pts) and new Working Capital Expansion (+14.8 pts), partially offset by Profit Collapse relief (-3.9 pts).
Business Resilience & Benchmark Context
Overall: HEALTHYPEER COMPARISON MATRIX
Ranked surveillance & credit risk comparison against sector peers
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* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.
Unlock 5-Year Forensic Divergence Cockpit
Access multi-year visual divergence charts (EBITDA vs CFO Cash Gap, Receivables Decoupling Spread, and Debt vs FCF Burn) for ACC Limited.
FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
Working Capital & Forensic Monitor
Operating Cycle Disclosuresยท10 Fiscal Years
Working Capital Schedule (INR Cr)
| Metric / Ratio | FY2026 | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2020 | FY2019 | FY2018 | FY2017 | FY2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trade Receivables(โน Cr) | 3,842 | 1,163 | 828 | 869 | โ | โ | โ | โ | โ | โ |
Inventories(โน Cr) | 1,789 | 1,925 | 1,869 | 1,624 | โ | โ | โ | โ | โ | โ |
Trade Payables(โน Cr) | 2,454 | 1,638 | 1,925 | 1,493 | โ | โ | โ | โ | โ | โ |
Net Working Capital(โน Cr) | 3,177 | 1,450 | 771 | 1,000 | โ | โ | โ | โ | โ | โ |
Working Capital / Sales(%) | 12.1% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 4.4% | โ | โ | โ | โ | โ | โ |
Cash Conversion & Operating Cycle (Days)
| Metric / Ratio | FY2026 | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2020 | FY2019 | FY2018 | FY2017 | FY2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC)(days) | 44d | 24d | 14d | 16d | โ | โ | โ | โ | โ | โ |
Debtor Days (DSO)(days) | 53d | 19d | 15d | 14d | โ | โ | โ | โ | โ | โ |
Inventory Days (DIO)(days) | 25d | 31d | 33d | 26d | โ | โ | โ | โ | โ | โ |
Creditor Days (DPO)(days) | 34d | 26d | 34d | 24d | โ | โ | โ | โ | โ | โ |
Forensic Accounting Monitor & Divergences
| Metric / Ratio | FY2026 | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2020 | FY2019 | FY2018 | FY2017 | FY2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Receivable Growth vs Sales (ฮ)(%) | +214.9% | +28.9% | +4.5% | โ | โ | โ | โ | โ | โ | โ |
Inventory Growth vs Sales (ฮ)(%) | -22.5% | -8.6% | +24.4% | โ | โ | โ | โ | โ | โ | โ |
Asset Growth vs Sales (ฮ)(%) | -7.1% | -3.0% | +23.1% | โ | โ | โ | โ | -3.3% | -10.0% | โ |
Earnings-to-Cash Divergence (PAT - CFO)(โน Cr) | 3,495 | 691 | -659 | 2,121 | โ | โ | โ | 403 | -629 | -732 |
Accrual Ratio (Accruals / Avg Assets)(%) | 13.2% | 2.8% | -3.0% | 10.3% | โ | โ | โ | 2.6% | -4.5% | -5.5% |
Operating Cash Realisation (CFO / EBITDA)(%) | -64.0% | 56.6% | 119.0% | -91.6% | โ | โ |