APTUSAptus Value Housing Finance India Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Housing Finance Company
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹10,014 Cr
Primary DriverGovernance
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
5 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Asset quality remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in governance. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

36.4th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
260.60.19%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment
+5.0 pts
Final Composite Risk5 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 05 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • NIM Compression
  • Operating Leverage Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (2)

CriticalHigh
NIM Compression
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 6 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
APTUS: NIM decline is accelerating (74 bps drop vs prev -26 bps).

"Pressure on core margins is stabilizing. Monitor for sustained interest income recovery."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)53.70⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+61.0+61.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Housing Finance Company (n=12 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
260.6(+0.19%)
1M Divergence+1.84%
1 Week+0.15%
1 Month+1.11%
6 Months-7.37%
1 Year-21.3%
2 Year-10.42%
3 Year-0.44%
Sector Average (1M)-0.73%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in governance remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of structural transparency and audit trails confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

APTUS • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.2%
Trend QualityEarly Base
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score32.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing2%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.0584σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#889 of 2716
Top 32.73% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+0.1%
1M+1.1%
6M-7.4%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA260.56
200 DMA276.33
150 DMA Slope-2.2814%Declining
Relative Strength-1.88%Neutral
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.0069
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (5).

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20262,245943-5927,874
FY20251,798751-1,4056,847
FY20241,417612-1,356-
FY20231,129503-1,0473,786