Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹90.85(▲2.25%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

ARFINArfin India Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Arfin India Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Aluminium

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹1,322 Cr

Primary DriverGovernance

Flagium AI Risk Score

7 / 100

-5 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in governance. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

25.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹90.85▲2.25%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment

+7.0 pts

Final Composite Risk7 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 7 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Working Capital Expansion
Low Interest Coverage

What to Watch Next Quarter

Working capital efficiency
Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (2)

CriticalHigh

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 435.3%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

ARFIN: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.72x in FY2026 Q2 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Risk Trajectory

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Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	2.45	7.27	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+59.0	+46.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Aluminium (n=5 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

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Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹90.85(+2.25%)

1M Divergence-6.12%

1 Week-2.7%

1 Month-3.85%

6 Months+52.15%

1 YearN/A

2 Year+165.8%

3 Year+165.8%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in governance remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of structural transparency and audit trails confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

ARFIN • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.98%

Trend QualityStrong

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score75%

Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)

Probability of Advancing98%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.7240σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#337 of 2716

Top 12.41% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-2.7%

1M-3.9%

6M+52.1%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹74.86

200 DMA₹66.56

150 DMA Slope+8.7267%Rising

Relative Strength+57.23%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)2.9267

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (20).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
NATIONALUMNational Aluminium Company Limited	6	0th	+5	8	+1	Competitive PositionStable
ARFINArfin India Limited	7	25th	-5	2	+0	GovernanceStable
MAANALUMAANALU	25	75th	-5	25	+0	Competitive PositionWatch
HINDALCOHindalco Industries Limited	35	100th	+23	10	+4	Earnings QualityWatch