ARIESAries Agro Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Fertilizers
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹442 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
5 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

0.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹332.05▲2.04%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+9.6 pts
Stability Adjustment
-5.0 pts
Final Composite Risk5 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 10 → 5 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Working Capital Expansion
  • Low Interest Coverage
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (2)

CriticalHigh
Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
ARIES: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -0.81x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -13.1%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)2.927.97✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+61.0+45.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Fertilizers (n=17 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹332.05(+2.04%)
1M Divergence-12.87%
1 Week-6.48%
1 Month-10.61%
6 Months+0.41%
1 Year+10.46%
2 Year+48.75%
3 Year+110.76%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

ARIES • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score15%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.4435σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1965 of 2716
Top 72.35% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-6.5%
1M-10.6%
6M+0.4%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹346.03
200 DMA₹359.28
150 DMA Slope-1.1691%Declining
Relative Strength+5.41%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.3036
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (21).
ARIESAries Agro Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta+5
Active Flags2
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

BOHRAINDBohra Industries Limited
11 Risk
Sector %ile44th
Delta0
Active Flags8
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

CHAMBLFERTChambal Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile63th
Delta+14
Active Flags11
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

AGROPHOSAgro Phos India Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile75th
Delta0
Active Flags26
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
5.252th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY2026753428651
FY20256273310544
FY2024519187770
FY2023481165596