ASHIANAAshiana Housing Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Residential Commercial Projects
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹3,253 Cr
Primary DriverGovernance
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
0 / 100
0 QoQ
Stable
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure has stabilized in governance. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. No major change in risk trend.

0.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹362.35▲1.26%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

No active forensic penalties contributing.
Final Composite Risk0 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 6 → 0 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Low Interest Coverage
  • Profit Collapse
  • Cash Conversion Deficit
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Operating cash flow
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (4)

CriticalHigh
Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
ASHIANA: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -92.86x in FY2025 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2025
ASHIANA: Net Profit collapsed by 60.8% from FY2024 Q3 to FY2025 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
ASHIANA: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2025
ASHIANA: Revenue fell 42.3% while Debt rose 77.2% in 2025 vs 2024.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)2.175.31✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+66.0+56.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Residential Commercial Projects (n=50 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹362.35(+1.26%)
1M Divergence+5.37%
1 Week-3.92%
1 Month+5.75%
6 Months+22.13%
1 Year+16.6%
2 Year+6.07%
3 Year+97.25%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in governance remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of structural transparency and audit trails confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

ASHIANA • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.94%
Trend QualityStrong
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score82.5%
Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)
Probability of Advancing94%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.2956σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#606 of 2716
Top 22.31% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-3.9%
1M+5.8%
6M+22.1%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹310.98
200 DMA₹309.25
150 DMA Slope+3.0295%Rising
Relative Strength+27.62%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.8878
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (10).
ASHIANAAshiana Housing Limited
0 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta0
Active Flags4
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

AGIILAgi Infra Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile31th
Delta+5
Active Flags1
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Stable

AJMERAAjmera Realty & Infra India Limited
12 Risk
Sector %ile55th
Delta+4
Active Flags7
Accel+3
Earnings Quality

Stable

ALEMBICLTDAlembic Limited
16 Risk
Sector %ile65th
Delta+16
Active Flags4
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Stable

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2025

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261,187118342305
FY202555718234262
FY202496783212148
FY20234252812182