ASHOKLEYAshok Leyland Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Commercial Vehicles
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹1,22,881 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
16 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in profitability and earnings quality. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

66.7th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹149.05▼0.49%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+15.0 pts
Stability Adjustment
+1.0 pts
Final Composite Risk16 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 16 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Operating cash flow
  • Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh
Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
ASHOKLEY: Raw material costs consumed an additional 5.5% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
ASHOKLEY: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalFY2026
ASHOKLEY: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Inventory growth (14.4%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-1.8%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 9 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
ASHOKLEY: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.00x in FY2026 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2024
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 1.2%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)5.928.94✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+50.0+52.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Commercial Vehicles (n=4 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹149.05(-0.49%)
1M Divergence-10.31%
1 Week-7.16%
1 Month-8.04%
6 Months-6.97%
1 Year+27.03%
2 Year+37.6%
3 Year+120.46%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

ASHOKLEY • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.28%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score27.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing28%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.8325σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2439 of 2716
Top 89.80% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-7.2%
1M-8.0%
6M-7.0%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹171.65
200 DMA₹162.02
150 DMA Slope+1.5593%Rising
Relative Strength-1.48%Neutral
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.1571
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (14).
SMLMAHSMLMAH
12 Risk
Sector %ile33th
Delta-5
Active Flags16
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

ASHOKLEYAshok Leyland Limited
16 Risk
Sector %ile67th
Delta-5
Active Flags8
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2026

Negative FCF Streak

2025

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Negative FCF Streak

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202656,9473,721-4,89563,936
FY202548,8943,38312849,962
FY202445,9312,696-6,25840,802
FY202341,7831,362-4,49931,161