Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹8,710(▼0.22%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

ASTRAZENAstraZeneca Pharma India Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: AstraZeneca Pharma India Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Pharmaceuticals

Risk ClassWatch

Market Cap₹22,000 Cr

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

35 / 100

+22 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

80.8th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹8,710▼0.22%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+15.0 pts

Growth Sustainability

+10.0 pts

Stability Adjustment

+10.0 pts

Final Composite Risk35 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 35 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🚨 Escalate

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Margin Compression
Industrial Margin Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover
Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh

Industrial Margin Stress

📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 6 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

ASTRAZEN: EBITDA margin compressed by 9.4 bps YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Inventory growth (87.3%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (17.7%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Operating margin declined by 6.8 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

ASTRAZEN: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ1 FY2025

ASTRAZEN: Net Profit collapsed by 121.9% from FY2024 Q1 to FY2025 Q1.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ1 FY2025

ASTRAZEN: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -137.79x in FY2025 Q1 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -4.7%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	9.17	7.70	⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+31.0	+47.0	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Pharmaceuticals (n=99 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹8,710(-0.22%)

1M Divergence+3.78%

1 Week-2.82%

1 Month+6.05%

6 Months-5.36%

1 Year-6.39%

2 Year+41.92%

3 Year+151.45%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

ASTRAZEN • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score15%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.1398σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1283 of 2716

Top 47.24% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-2.8%

1M+6.0%

6M-5.4%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹8,711.4

200 DMA₹8,757.64

150 DMA Slope-0.8560%Declining

Relative Strength+0.92%Neutral

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.7161

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (19).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AAREYDRUGSAarey Drugs & Pharmaceuticals Limited	23	63th	-5	20	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
ASTRAZENAstraZeneca Pharma India Limited	35	81th	+22	8	+1	Earnings QualityWatch
AARTIPHARMAarti Pharmalabs Limited	35	81th	0	18	+0	Earnings QualityWatch
CIPLACipla Limited	48	99th	+32	15	+5	Earnings QualityModerate Deterioration