ATULAUTOAtul Auto Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Commercial Vehicles
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹1,332 Cr
Primary DriverGovernance
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
4 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in governance. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

0.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹476.3▼0.28%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment
+4.0 pts
Final Composite Risk4 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 11 → 4 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Working Capital Expansion
  • Low Interest Coverage
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Operating cash flow
  • Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
ATULAUTO: Raw material costs consumed an additional 6.3% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2025
ATULAUTO: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
ATULAUTO: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"Free cash flow pressure is easing as capital intensity or working capital stress recedes."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 25.3%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
ATULAUTO: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.31x in FY2026 Q1 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)5.758.94✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+62.0+52.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Commercial Vehicles (n=4 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹476.3(-0.28%)
1M Divergence-4.72%
1 Week-1.48%
1 Month-2.46%
6 Months+6.01%
1 Year-1.48%
2 Year-6.74%
3 Year+39.45%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in governance remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of structural transparency and audit trails confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

ATULAUTO • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.11%
Trend QualityEarly Base
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score37.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing11%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.1510σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1308 of 2716
Top 48.16% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-1.5%
1M-2.5%
6M+6.0%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹456.15
200 DMA₹462.27
150 DMA Slope-0.1716%Declining
Relative Strength+11.50%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.1419
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (14).
ATULAUTOAtul Auto Limited
4 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta-5
Active Flags5
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

SMLMAHSMLMAH
12 Risk
Sector %ile33th
Delta-5
Active Flags16
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

ASHOKLEYAshok Leyland Limited
16 Risk
Sector %ile67th
Delta-5
Active Flags25
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

TMCVTata Motors Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta-5
Active Flags3
Accel+0
Governance

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Industrial Margin Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Negative FCF Streak

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20268274347145
FY20257251834110
FY20245297-1144
FY20235153-18171