Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹1,429.2(▼0.31%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

AUROPHARMAAurobindo Pharma Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Aurobindo Pharma Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Pharmaceuticals

Risk ClassWatch

Market Cap₹70,393 Cr

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

22 / 100

+5 QoQ

Deteriorating

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

61.6th %ile (Sector)Accel: +5 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹1,429.2▼0.31%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+10.6 pts

Competitive Position

+10.6 pts

Growth Sustainability

+10.0 pts

Balance Sheet Stress

+8.0 pts

Stability Adjustment

-17.0 pts

Final Composite Risk22 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 22 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

🚨 Escalate

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Relative Growth Weakness
Industrial Margin Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Inventory turnover
Operating profit margins
Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Inventory growth (14.3%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (5.3%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 17.2%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

AUROPHARMA: EBITDA margin compressed by 1.5 bps YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Operating Leverage Stress

📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Capex Efficiency Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Aggressive Capex (16.2%) amidst slow revenue growth (6.0%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	3.82	7.70	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+44.0	+47.0	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Pharmaceuticals (n=99 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹1,429.2(-0.31%)

1M Divergence+0.59%

1 Week-2.19%

1 Month+2.86%

6 Months+16.85%

1 Year+26.19%

2 Year+20.99%

3 Year+117.5%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

AUROPHARMA • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.95%

Trend QualityStrong

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score82.5%

Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)

Probability of Advancing95%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.2387σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#661 of 2716

Top 24.34% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-2.2%

1M+2.9%

6M+16.9%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹1,260.36

200 DMA₹1,214.99

150 DMA Slope+4.1381%Rising

Relative Strength+23.61%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.1468

ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (19).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AUROPHARMAAurobindo Pharma Limited	22	62th	+5	6	+5	Earnings QualityWatch
AAREYDRUGSAarey Drugs & Pharmaceuticals Limited	23	63th	-5	20	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
AARTIPHARMAarti Pharmalabs Limited	35	81th	0	18	+0	Earnings QualityWatch
ALBERTDAVDAlbert David Limited	37	90th	-8	27	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch