AVONMOREAvonmore Capital & Management Services Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Non Banking Financial Company (NBFC)
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹422 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
17 / 100
+17 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Asset quality remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in core profitability and credit costs. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

83.8th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹10.32▼4.09%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+16.9 pts
Final Composite Risk17 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 17 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • NIM Compression
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (1)

CriticalHigh
NIM Compression
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
AVONMORE: NIM compressed by 550 bps YoY (to 37.94%).

"Early signs of margin compression detected. Core interest income is being squeezed."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)3.364.59✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+49.0+55.5📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Non Banking Financial Company (NBFC) (n=38 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹10.32(-4.09%)
1M Divergence-15.84%
1 Week-5.58%
1 Month-16.5%
6 Months-39.68%
1 Year-51.02%
2 Year-14.43%
3 Year+48.28%
Sector Average (1M)-0.66%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

AVONMORE • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-1.3691σ
Significant momentum lag
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2632 of 2716
Top 96.91% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-5.6%
1M-16.5%
6M-39.7%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹14.96
200 DMA₹16.05
150 DMA Slope-6.3403%Declining
Relative Strength-35.82%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.4799
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (10.5).
AIILAuthum Investment & Infrastructure Limited
16 Risk
Sector %ile78th
Delta0
Active Flags6
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

AVONMOREAvonmore Capital & Management Services Limited
17 Risk
Sector %ile84th
Delta+17
Active Flags1
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Stable

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
3.232.5th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

NIM Compression

2026

NIM Compression

2025

NIM Compression

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY2026191221521
FY202518238-315
FY20241272039-
FY20232151222024