BAJAJHCAREBajaj Healthcare Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Pharmaceuticals
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹1,028 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
35 / 100
+35 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

80.8th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹299.8▲1.97%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+18.6 pts
Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Earnings Quality
+7.9 pts
Stability Adjustment
-1.0 pts
Final Composite Risk35 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 35 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Working Capital Expansion
  • Low Interest Coverage
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh
Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 6 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
BAJAJHCARE: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -2.74x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (33.4%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-7.2%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
BAJAJHCARE: Net Profit collapsed by 304.4% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2025
BAJAJHCARE: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 0.1%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2024
Aggressive Capex (22.0%) amidst slow revenue growth (-49.0%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)8.837.70⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+31.0+47.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Pharmaceuticals (n=99 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹299.8(+1.97%)
1M Divergence-9.09%
1 Week-1.79%
1 Month-6.82%
6 Months-29.33%
1 Year-43.75%
2 Year+4.29%
3 Year+1.51%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

BAJAJHCARE • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.7096σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2327 of 2716
Top 85.68% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-1.8%
1M-6.8%
6M-29.3%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹366.9
200 DMA₹387.88
150 DMA Slope-5.8333%Declining
Relative Strength-23.84%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.7656
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (19).
AAREYDRUGSAarey Drugs & Pharmaceuticals Limited
23 Risk
Sector %ile63th
Delta-5
Active Flags20
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

BAJAJHCAREBajaj Healthcare Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile81th
Delta+35
Active Flags6
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

AARTIPHARMAarti Pharmalabs Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile81th
Delta0
Active Flags18
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

CIPLACipla Limited
48 Risk
Sector %ile99th
Delta+32
Active Flags15
Accel+5
Earnings Quality

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
4.747.2th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
0.77.2th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Inventory Stress

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Capex Efficiency Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20266181658233
FY20255623922223
FY2024482-8492332
FY202367543-22414