Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹83.28(▼0.92%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

BAJAJHFLBajaj Housing Finance Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Bajaj Housing Finance Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Housing Finance Company

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹65,076 Cr

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

5 / 100

+5 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Asset quality remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in core profitability and credit costs. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

36.4th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹83.28▼0.92%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+8.0 pts

Stability Adjustment

-3.0 pts

Final Composite Risk5 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 5 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

NIM Compression

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (1)

CriticalHigh

NIM Compression

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

BAJAJHFL: NIM decline is accelerating (32 bps drop vs prev -6 bps). [Growth Adjusted: 24%]

"Early signs of margin compression detected. Core interest income is being squeezed."

Risk Trajectory

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Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	0.45	3.70	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+61.0	+61.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Housing Finance Company (n=12 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

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Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹83.28(-0.92%)

1M Divergence-3.75%

1 Week-2.08%

1 Month-4.47%

6 Months-13.53%

1 Year-32.79%

2 Year-45.94%

3 Year-45.94%

Sector Average (1M)-0.73%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

BAJAJHFL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score0%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.4046σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1881 of 2716

Top 69.26% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-2.1%

1M-4.5%

6M-13.5%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹91.99

200 DMA₹96.98

150 DMA Slope-3.5943%Declining

Relative Strength-8.04%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.5280

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (5).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
BAJAJHFLBajaj Housing Finance Limited	5	36th	+5	1	+1	Earnings QualityStable
AADHARHFCAadhar Housing Finance Limited	10	82th	0	4	+0	Earnings QualityStable
REPCOHOMEREPCOHOME	16	91th	+5	8	+1	Earnings QualityStable
SAMMAANCAPSammaan Capital Limited	25	100th	+15	5	+3	Earnings QualityWatch