BATAINDIABata India Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Footwear
Risk ClassModerate Deterioration
Market Cap₹9,915 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Moderate stress emerging. While not critical, underlying pressure is building.
50 / 100
+19 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Some early signs of pressure are visible. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

100.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹670.3▲0.91%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+20.0 pts
Earnings Quality
+15.0 pts
Competitive Position
+15.0 pts
Final Composite Risk50 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 50 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh
Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
BATAINDIA: EBITDA margin compressed by 4.3 bps YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 57.5%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
BATAINDIA: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.11x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Relative Growth Weakness
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 6 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (13.0%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
BATAINDIA: Net Profit collapsed by 95.2% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Operating margin declined by 2.3 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)6.3610.38✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+16.0+43.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Footwear (n=5 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹670.3(+0.91%)
1M Divergence-8.97%
1 Week-4.06%
1 Month-6.7%
6 Months-30.2%
1 Year-46.44%
2 Year-49.8%
3 Year-55.66%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Moderate Stress and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

BATAINDIA • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.8105σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2419 of 2716
Top 89.06% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-4.1%
1M-6.7%
6M-30.2%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹846.8
200 DMA₹928.89
150 DMA Slope-7.0197%Declining
Relative Strength-24.71%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.4990
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (23).
CAMPUSCampus Activewear Limited
2 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta-5
Active Flags6
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

METROBRANDMETROBRAND
25 Risk
Sector %ile75th
Delta-5
Active Flags9
Accel+0
Governance

Watch

BATAINDIABata India Limited
50 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+19
Active Flags7
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20263,595134595-
FY20253,554331738-
FY20243,540263453-
FY20233,490323629-