BHARATFORGBharat Forge Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Auto Components & Equipments
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹90,215 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
6 / 100
+1 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is gradually increasing.

28.8th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹1,902.9▼1.03%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+6.4 pts
Final Composite Risk6 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 6 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (4)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 15.2%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (14.2%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (8.9%).

"Slight build-up in inventory detected. Monitor for slowing sales momentum."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Aggressive Capex (21.8%) amidst slow revenue growth (-2.0%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)2.365.20✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+60.0+55.5✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Auto Components & Equipments (n=74 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹1,902.9(-1.03%)
1M Divergence-1.14%
1 Week-1.42%
1 Month+1.13%
6 Months+36.63%
1 Year+52.27%
2 Year+23.88%
3 Year+146.22%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

BHARATFORG • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.96%
Trend QualityStrong
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score75%
Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)
Probability of Advancing96%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.2855σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#621 of 2716
Top 22.86% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-1.4%
1M+1.1%
6M+36.6%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹1,621.66
200 DMA₹1,514.66
150 DMA Slope+6.0992%Rising
Relative Strength+40.82%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.3205
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (10.5).
ASKAUTOLTDASK Automotive Limited
1 Risk
Sector %ile7th
Delta-5
Active Flags9
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

BHARATFORGBharat Forge Limited
6 Risk
Sector %ile29th
Delta+1
Active Flags4
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

ALICONAlicon Castalloy Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile74th
Delta-5
Active Flags18
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

ARE&MAmara Raja Energy & Mobility Limited
30 Risk
Sector %ile89th
Delta-5
Active Flags19
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
6.868th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Capex Efficiency Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202617,0101,0891,4876,875
FY202515,3379131,7966,288
FY202415,9099101,6647,522
FY202313,0835081,2946,852