CHAMBLFERTChambal Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Fertilizers
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹17,881 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
25 / 100
+14 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

62.5th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹469.55▲0.02%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+14.8 pts
Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Final Composite Risk25 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 25 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Margin Compression
  • Industrial Margin Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh
Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 401.9%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (26.5%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (12.4%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
CHAMBLFERT: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2024
CHAMBLFERT: Raw material costs consumed an additional 5.0% of revenue YoY.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 2.5 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)6.647.97✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+41.0+45.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Fertilizers (n=17 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹469.55(+0.02%)
1M Divergence+4.92%
1 Week-1.76%
1 Month+7.19%
6 Months+8.34%
1 Year-13.74%
2 Year+25.17%
3 Year+78.19%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

CHAMBLFERT • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.10%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score47.5%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing10%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.0189σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#959 of 2716
Top 35.31% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-1.8%
1M+7.2%
6M+8.3%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹449.78
200 DMA₹468.42
150 DMA Slope-1.3751%Declining
Relative Strength+13.83%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.0472
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (21).
CHAMBLFERTChambal Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile63th
Delta+14
Active Flags6
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

AGROPHOSAgro Phos India Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile75th
Delta0
Active Flags26
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

ZUARIZUARI
45 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+10
Active Flags22
Accel+2
Balance Sheet Stress

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
2.625.8th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Inventory Stress

2024

Industrial Margin Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202620,9211,9531381,054
FY202516,8611,6491,39482
FY202418,2161,2763,3271,854
FY202327,9411,0343,2393,335